April 28, 2011
by Michael Loiacono
Omg. O. M. G. It’s here. Christmas morning for the ultimate football nerd. I love the the NFL Draft like Katy Perry loves making super catchy pop hits. Enough with my blabbering though. You’re probably feeling a lot like it’s college all over again and your cramming for a big test – ya know, the ones where information only needs to be retained for a mere one day, then it can vanish forever. Time is scarce. Unlike you fools, I have been prepping for this draft since May 1st of last year (just remember who to thank when you look like a stud at your buddy’s drat party tomorrow). I’ve thrown together the ultimate study guide. It’s like if Quora and Google bore a child of knowledge known as my mind. Questions, answers, predictions, and of course, a mock. Easy and simple. Get to work:
Will this get nerdy?
Yes.
Is the draft the second best NFL event of the year?
Yes.
1) Kickoff Sunday
2) NFL Draft
3) The Superbowl
The Superbowl writes history for two teams, the draft helps determine every team’s future… plus the Bills are so far removed from the Superbowl, that the draft tends to be much more relevant for me…
Who is the best player in the draft?
Patrick Peterson. Just trust me… he is. He’s a name you come to know very well.
Who will go first overall?
Cam Newton
Who should go first overall?
Anyone but Cam Newton (see below). Patrick Peterson should go #1. Panthers have some good players on their defense already, and adding Peterson will solidify the defensive team identity and build around it (Remember, defense wins championships). Their offense needs a ton of help and one player won’t be the fix. Marcell Dareus would be a good pick too, but this is a division with great passers (Brees, Ryan, and up and comer Freeman who will be good). Peterson is a sure thing. Also, they drafted Jimmy Clausen last year which is why Cam Newton makes no sense… wait… hold on…
Will Cam Newton be a huge bust?
Yes.

Why?
He is a freak of a specimen. He is not an NFL QB. He has BLARING character issues. Like this will be the guy to run your franchise? No effing way. Plus, his accuracy is sub par*. He played in a system at Auburn where he didn’t call any plays, and his passing plays almost never had more than two passing progressions (run was his third option). That’s not much more advanced than most highschool QB’s.
Back to my original point, Jimmy Clausen was drafted last year with their top pick. Sure, he doesn’t have the upside of Cam, but he still has many of the same red flags. But the Panthers probably can’t afford to pay two young, top pick QB’s and truthfully, you’re very naive if you think you can evaluate Jimmy Clausen based on one half season on a terrible team. Remember, plenty of rookies suck their first year.
*Side Note: Passing power is the most overated quality when evalutating prospects; QB accuracy is far more valuable when translating to the NFL level.
Will there be lots of trading?
Yes… probably more so than in years past. The overall consensus on players is more muddled and fluid than in years past.
Will the Patriots make some deals with with 6 picks in the first 3 rounds?
Yes. But not at 17. The Patriots defense isn’t good. It is young, and loaded with upside (Mayo, McCourty, Merriweather and Brandon Spikes, to name a few), but not good. Adding one more defensive line stud would quickly make this defense poised to be elite very soon.
At 28, expect them to trade down to acquire more picks. This is where, I believe, Andy Dalton will be selected – his stock seems to have caught fire this past week. I’d like the Bengals to move up and make a snag if they don’t go QB in the first.
Who is the most confusing player to predict?
Da’Quan Bowers – Once a predicted top overall pick, now potentially a second rounder? Mostly because his stock fell so dramatically after the combine (which is a pretty short time to fall from grace). Curious to see where he lands.
How many QB’s go in the 1st Round?
4 – Newton, Gabbert, Locker, and Dalton.
Who will be the best dressed player at the draft?
Von Miller
Most interesting first round pick?
Minnesota Vikings. What they do could define how the rest of the first round shakes out.
Is the Thursday night format better?
Yes. Teams love it because it slows down a very hectic day. I like it because it breaks up a weekend filled with television.
ESPN or NFL Network?
NFL Network if you can get it. Better screen layout and they don’t spend 80% of their time on the top 10 players. Better personalities as well.
Team I forsee making a terrible decision:
Dallas Cowboys. This team is real confused.
Top 3 Underrated Players:
1) Jonathan Baldwin – WR Pittsburgh – He may fall to the second round… so did Anquan Boldin. This kid will be a monstor, you heard it here first.
2) Casey Matthews – LB – Oregon – The measurable difference between top prospects is marginal. You can’t measure genetics. At least I can’t.
3) Nate Solder – OT – This kid is a wall. You can teach footwork technique but you can’t teach a man to become a 6’8 Minotaur.
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Top 3 True Sleepers:
1) Dontay Moch – ILB – Nevada – This kid is a FREAK. Everywhere I look has him to the Dolphins in the 3rd… not sure why. He’s gonna be good though and whoever gets him will have a steal.
2) Ras-I Dowling – CB – Virginia – Named like a new computer processor, but he plays like a graceful swan.
3) Muhammed Wilkerson – DT – Temple – He may wind up a unforeseen top 10 pick, probably a top 20 at worst. He has a motor, and its certainly a hemi.
Top 3 Biggest Busts:
1) Cam Newton – See above
2) Anthony Castonzo – OG – Boston College – Has any one of the scouts even seen this guy play? He is miserable. I admit, I really am no expert at scouting o-lineman, but I can recognize a guy who is slow off the snap and constantly getting burned. (Robert Quinn vs Anthoyn Castonzo) I am honestly baffled at why the ‘experts’ have him so high. Scope his senior bowl tape too if you don’t believe me. Hopefully the Patrtiots make their pick based on sentiment…
3) Ryan Mallet – QB – Arkansas – Sure he has a rocket arm but his lack of decision making ability and inaccuracy are what will prevent him from ever being a good pro. And he’s a pretty big douche when he opens his mouth…
Coolest name in the draft?
Ben Ijalana, OT – Villanova
Could this be the most exciting draft ever?
Definitely. No one really knows what’s happening with this Lockout BS, but supposedly there is a solid chance that ‘informal’ free agency begins tomorrow. Never have we seen teams shop for rookies and free agents simultaneously. If that happens, I would drain my life savings to sit in a war room tomorrow… It would be mayhem.
Should we be real?
Yea. That probably won’t happen. The truth is that this is one of the weakest draft classes to come out in the last decade.
Mock Draft
(This is what I predict WILL happen… not should. And I don’t waste time trying to predict trades. I know they will happen, but shuffling around my board would just be pure guessing…)
Carolina – Cam Newton QB Auburn – The Panthers will take Cam. Let’s face it. This way they can have this same pick again in 2016.
Denver – Marcell Dareus DT Alabama – Again, a ton of needs. Try to build the trenches has always been Jon Fox’s formula…
Buffalo – Vonn Miller OLB Texas AM – The Bills have so many needs that a trade would be wise, but Miller provides needed linebacker help for a team hat has shown complete ineptitude at stopping the run and sacking the quarterback (especially in the 4th quarter) Gabbert would be wise here though.
Cincinatti – Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri– Carson is out. No decent QB free agent will consider signing with Cinci and Marv Lewis’ new contract relives pressure to win now. Gabbert is the best QB in this draft as he offers the whole package… I really like Gabbert’s potential.
Arizona – Patrick Peterson CB LSU – Arizona desperately needs a QB, but I’m guessing they will go the veteran route and sign a free agent (Orton, Kolb, Mcnabb, Young, Hill…) to keep Larry Fitz in town past next season . Patrick Peterson is amazing value and will look great opposite DRC and in front of Adrian Wilson.
Cleveland – AJ Green WR Georgia – McCoy’s new toy.
San Francisco – Cameron Jordan DE California – Harbaugh goes with a guy he knows well, who will compliment Patrick Willis well on a fierce defense.
Tennessee – Robert Quinn DE North Carolina– I don’t see them risking QB after what they’ve been through with Vince Young. Quinn has too much upside to pass on for this defensive minded team. QB will be taken later or via free agency.
Dallas – Nick Fairley DT Auburn – A big DT to play in the 3-4. Honestly, Dallas sucks, Dallas has more needs than people seem willing to admit so acquiring picks seems wise. With teams like Miami and Jacksonville trying to leapfrog Washington for a Jake Locker, I think a trade is likely. I’ll keep it simple for now.
Washington – Julio Jones WR Alabama– Good value for a team need..
Houston – Prince Akunamara CB Nebraska – Although they took a CB last year in the first round, I think they still go with a great player that fills a team need.
Minnesota – JJ Watt DE Wisconsin – They are in win NOW mode as they are simply one QB away- they will not take the best QB available and go QB via free agency (Kolb makes the most sense here and the Vikings would be wise to exchange this pick for him straight up). I predict they replace Ray Edwards. With possibility for a trade down with a team reaching for Locker.
Detroit – Aldon Smith LB Missouri – CB could happen here as well if one of the aforementioned CB’s happen to fall…but look for the Lions to vamp up their LB core…
St. Louis – Muhammed Wilkerson DT Temple – Rams fill a big need with a defensive monster. I love this guy.
Miami – Jake Locker QB Washington- This team will give Henne one more year while they groom Locker. His versatility may make him the newest twist in the Wildcat… if not the Dolphins, expect a trade here for Locker. He won’t make it past this pick.
Jacksonville – Da’Quan Bowers DE Clemson – The Jags are the only team who suck more at drafting than the Buffalo Bills. Maybe something dumb like Ryan Mallet… but picking yet another DE seems likely. Does anyone else feel like that’s the only thing they draft in the 1st round ever?
New England – Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue – Just the type of guy Bellicheck loves. Great pick here. Hopefully Costazno goes instead and the Pats waste this pick…
San Diego – Nate Solder OT Colorado – This team isn’t very flawed, but they could use help along a sometimes porous line. Carimi may be the better fit, but the Chargers have the luxury of drafting raw talent with high upside (Did you see his footwork at the combine???) Some sort of DE/LB is an option as well.
New York Giants – Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin – A big physical OT to hopefully replace Kareem McKenzie at some point. If the Giants don’t have faith in Will Beatty, then maybe they need to get a left tackle that can handle speed rushers. Sherrod and Tyron Smith are still on the board too, and worth considering. The Giants’ offensive line needs a revamp, but Carimi fits their style.
Tampa Bay – Jimmy Smith CB Colorado – The Bucs offense showed good progress with the emergence of Freeman, Blount, Mike Williams, and Kellen Winslow. Hopefully top picks Gerald McCoy and Brian Price will be healthy and able to contribute. Aqib Talib had 6 interceptions in 11 games but will likely be suspended this year. A corner to eventually replace an aging Ronde Barber is a good pick here.
Kansas City – Tyron Smith OT USC – Drafting well on the defense line has paid dividends for the Chiefs, now it’s time to start investing on the other side as this team matures.
Indianapolis – Corey Luiget DT Illinois – You’ve never heard of him – but you should’ve. Although the Colts went D-line in the first round last year, Freeney and Mathis aren’t getting younger and run defense is a perennial problem for this team.
Philadelphia – Anthony Castonzo OG Boston College – The Eagles will welcome a guy who can immediately help prolong Michael Vick’s career… although I don’t see it…
New Orleans – Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa– Another DE to play opposite Will Smith. Once again, this team has the luxury of drafting BPA because this team lacks a glaring hole.
Seattle – Marvin Austin DT – North Carolina – Carroll is confident in his ability to develop young QB’s, so I could see Ponder or Dalton here. But the soft Seattle defense is still a priority and this guy makes the most sense from an immediate impact standpoint.
Baltimore – Brandon Harris CB Miami – Defensive players from Miami have worked out pretty well for this team in the past.
Atlanta – Allen Bailey DE – Pass rusher to compliment John Abraham. Although unlikely, another WR (Jon Baldwin see # 32) to compliment Roddy would be a great pick, I just don’t see them taking that route.
New England – TRADE with someone (San Francisco?) to land Andy Dalton… can’t wait to see what happens here…
Chicago – Jon Baldwin WR Pitt – While an OT like Derrcik Sherrod is a real possibility here. The Bears need a real receiver for Cutler. Baldwin will be a great match.
New York Jets – Phil Taylor – If he can stay healthy, this is a great value pick. Jets fortunate to have a position of need where it seems there is guaranteed to be an elite prospect. Rex, the same guy who drafted Haloti Ngata, replaces Kris Jenkins with a lot of man meat.
Pittsburgh – Mike Pouncey OG Florida – An upgrade at offensive line to help their abysmal line and pound the running game and keep Roesthisberger upright. Plus, the Rooneys are a smart organization and understand the value in putting together an o-line that has good chemistry.
Green Bay – Casey Matthews LB Oregon – SomePeopleThink I really am a sucker for these sort of brilliant PR moves.
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